Boise
Forward Madison FC
The model leans Boise at 50%. Expected goals: Boise 2.01, Forward Madison FC 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%. Boise won 4 of their last 6; Forward Madison FC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Boise | 55% | 1.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.28 | – | – | – |
| 2Forward Madison FC | 21% | 4.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: Boise. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.01 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–16.6%
- 2–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Boise −1| Boise line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 21% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 14% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.