Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

Forward Madison FC

11
Lost

Greenville Triumph SC

The model leans Forward Madison FC at 50%. Expected goals: Forward Madison FC 1.67, Greenville Triumph SC 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%. Forward Madison FC won 2 of their last 6; Greenville Triumph SC won 0 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Forward Madison FC52%1.93
XDraw27%3.76
2Greenville Triumph SC22%4.63

Pick: Forward Madison FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.67 – 1.01
LineOverUnder
1.575%25%
2.550%50%
3.528%72%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.6%
  • 1011.5%
  • 219.7%
  • 209.6%
  • 016.9%
  • 006.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 11% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Forward Madison FC −0.5
Forward Madison FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.529%71%
-129%24%47%
-0.553%47%
053%24%23%
+0.577%23%
+177%15%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.