Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

Corpus Christi

10
Lost

Greenville Triumph SC

The model leans Greenville Triumph SC at 33%. Expected goals: Corpus Christi 1.30, Greenville Triumph SC 1.33. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Corpus Christi won 2 of their last 6; Greenville Triumph SC won 0 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Corpus Christi35%2.87
XDraw29%3.48
2Greenville Triumph SC36%2.75

Pick: Greenville Triumph SC. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.30 – 1.33
LineOverUnder
1.574%26%
2.549%51%
3.527%73%
Both teams to scoreYes53%No47%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.5%
  • 019.6%
  • 109.4%
  • 128.3%
  • 218.1%
  • 007.3%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 45% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Corpus Christi 0
Corpus Christi lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.516%84%
-116%20%64%
-0.536%64%
036%26%38%
+0.562%38%
+162%21%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.