Predictions · USL Cup Grp. 3 · outside model coverage

Corpus Christi

11
Lost

One Knoxville SC

The model leans One Knoxville SC at 51%. Expected goals: Corpus Christi 0.83, One Knoxville SC 1.69. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. Corpus Christi won 2 of their last 6; One Knoxville SC won 2 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Corpus Christi17%5.88
XDraw26%3.81
2One Knoxville SC57%1.76

Pick: One Knoxville SC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.83 – 1.69
LineOverUnder
1.572%28%
2.546%54%
3.524%76%
Both teams to scoreYes46%No54%

Most likely scores

  • 0113.7%
  • 0211.5%
  • 1111.3%
  • 129.5%
  • 008.1%
  • 106.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: One Knoxville SC −1
Corpus Christi lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.56%94%
-16%13%82%
-0.518%82%
018%24%58%
+0.542%58%
+142%26%32%
+1.568%32%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.