Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

Spokane Velocity FC

04
Won

One Knoxville SC

The model leans One Knoxville SC at 30%. Expected goals: Spokane Velocity FC 0.98, One Knoxville SC 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 58%. Spokane Velocity FC won 3 of their last 6; One Knoxville SC won 2 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Spokane Velocity FC31%3.21
XDraw33%3.02
2One Knoxville SC36%2.80

Pick: One Knoxville SC. Calibrated probability 30% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 69%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.98 – 1.06
LineOverUnder
1.560%40%
2.533%67%
3.515%85%
Both teams to scoreYes41%No59%

Most likely scores

  • 0113.8%
  • 1113.5%
  • 0013.0%
  • 1012.7%
  • 027.4%
  • 127.2%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Spokane Velocity FC 0
Spokane Velocity FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.512%88%
-112%21%68%
-0.532%68%
032%30%37%
+0.563%37%
+163%22%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.