Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

Spokane Velocity FC

01
Lost

Forward Madison FC

The model leans Spokane Velocity FC at 43%. Expected goals: Spokane Velocity FC 1.43, Forward Madison FC 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 52%. Spokane Velocity FC won 3 of their last 6; Forward Madison FC won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Spokane Velocity FC47%2.14
XDraw29%3.41
2Forward Madison FC24%4.19

Pick: Spokane Velocity FC. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.43 – 0.95
LineOverUnder
1.569%31%
2.542%58%
3.522%78%
Both teams to scoreYes47%No53%

Most likely scores

  • 1013.2%
  • 1112.6%
  • 209.4%
  • 009.3%
  • 219.0%
  • 018.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Spokane Velocity FC −0.5
Spokane Velocity FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.524%76%
-124%24%52%
-0.548%52%
048%27%25%
+0.575%25%
+175%16%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.