Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

Forward Madison FC

11
Lost

Charlotte Independence

The model leans Forward Madison FC at 37%. Expected goals: Forward Madison FC 1.66, Charlotte Independence 1.63. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. Forward Madison FC won 2 of their last 6; Charlotte Independence won 0 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Forward Madison FC38%2.63
XDraw25%3.99
2Charlotte Independence37%2.71

Pick: Forward Madison FC. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.66 – 1.63
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.564%36%
3.542%58%
Both teams to scoreYes65%No35%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.1%
  • 218.4%
  • 128.2%
  • 226.8%
  • 106.2%
  • 016.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Forward Madison FC 0
Forward Madison FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.520%80%
-120%19%61%
-0.539%61%
039%23%38%
+0.562%38%
+162%19%19%
+1.581%19%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.