Forward Madison FC
One Knoxville SC
The model leans One Knoxville SC at 37%. Expected goals: Forward Madison FC 1.06, One Knoxville SC 1.28. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 51%. Forward Madison FC won 2 of their last 6; One Knoxville SC won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Forward Madison FC | 30% | 3.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.28 | – | – | – |
| 2One Knoxville SC | 40% | 2.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: One Knoxville SC. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.06 – 1.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.3%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–09.6%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–27.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Forward Madison FC 0| Forward Madison FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 23% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.