AV Alta
Charlotte Independence
The model leans AV Alta at 37%. Expected goals: AV Alta 1.62, Charlotte Independence 1.50. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. AV Alta won 2 of their last 6; Charlotte Independence won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AV Alta | 40% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.87 | – | – | – |
| 2Charlotte Independence | 35% | 2.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: AV Alta. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.62 – 1.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.1%
- 0–16.6%
- 2–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AV Alta 0| AV Alta line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 20% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 24% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.