Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

AV Alta

00
Lost

Westchester SC

The model leans AV Alta at 51%. Expected goals: AV Alta 1.96, Westchester SC 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%. AV Alta won 2 of their last 6; Westchester SC won 0 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1AV Alta57%1.76
XDraw24%4.21
2Westchester SC20%5.11

Pick: AV Alta. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.96 – 1.09
LineOverUnder
1.581%19%
2.559%41%
3.536%64%
Both teams to scoreYes57%No43%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.1%
  • 219.9%
  • 109.3%
  • 209.1%
  • 316.5%
  • 306.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: AV Alta −1
AV Alta lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.534%66%
-134%23%42%
-0.558%42%
058%22%21%
+0.579%21%
+179%13%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.