AV Alta
Phoenix Rising FC
The model leans Phoenix Rising FC at 53%. Expected goals: AV Alta 0.82, Phoenix Rising FC 1.85. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%. AV Alta won 2 of their last 6; Phoenix Rising FC won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AV Alta | 15% | 6.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.12 | – | – | – |
| 2Phoenix Rising FC | 61% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
Pick: Phoenix Rising FC. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.82 – 1.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.9%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–37.3%
- 0–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 37% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Phoenix Rising FC −1| AV Alta line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 11% | 84% |
| -0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| 0 | 16% | 22% | 62% |
| +0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| +1 | 38% | 25% | 36% |
| +1.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.