Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

Union Omaha

31
Won

AV Alta

The model leans Union Omaha at 54%. Expected goals: Union Omaha 1.91, AV Alta 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. Union Omaha won 2 of their last 5; AV Alta won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Union Omaha62%1.61
XDraw23%4.26
2AV Alta14%7.02

Pick: Union Omaha. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.91 – 0.81
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.551%49%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes47%No53%

Most likely scores

  • 1012.5%
  • 2012.0%
  • 1110.2%
  • 219.7%
  • 307.6%
  • 006.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 46% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Union Omaha −1
Union Omaha lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.538%62%
-138%25%37%
-0.563%37%
063%21%15%
+0.585%15%
+185%11%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.