Boise
Union Omaha
The model leans Union Omaha at 37%. Expected goals: Boise 1.47, Union Omaha 1.61. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. Boise won 4 of their last 6; Union Omaha won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Boise | 34% | 2.94 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
| 2Union Omaha | 40% | 2.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Union Omaha. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.47 – 1.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Boise 0| Boise line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 19% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 24% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 20% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.