Union Omaha
Cosmos
The model leans Union Omaha at 70%. Expected goals: Union Omaha 3.50, Cosmos 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 58%. Union Omaha won 2 of their last 5; Cosmos won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Union Omaha | 85% | 1.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 10% | 9.81 | – | – | – |
| 2Cosmos | 5% | 19.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Union Omaha. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 85%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.50 – 0.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 64% | 36% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 3–08.9%
- 3–18.0%
- 4–07.8%
- 2–07.7%
- 4–17.0%
- 2–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Union Omaha −2| Union Omaha line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| -1 | 69% | 16% | 15% |
| -0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| 0 | 85% | 10% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 4% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.