Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

Forward Madison FC

31
Won

Cosmos

The model leans Forward Madison FC at 60%. Expected goals: Forward Madison FC 2.61, Cosmos 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 66%. Forward Madison FC won 2 of their last 6; Cosmos won 1 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Forward Madison FC67%1.50
XDraw18%5.45
2Cosmos15%6.61

Pick: Forward Madison FC. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.61 – 1.22
LineOverUnder
1.590%10%
2.574%26%
3.553%47%
Both teams to scoreYes65%No35%

Most likely scores

  • 219.0%
  • 317.9%
  • 207.4%
  • 116.9%
  • 306.4%
  • 105.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Forward Madison FC −1.5
Forward Madison FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.546%54%
-146%21%33%
-0.567%33%
067%17%16%
+0.584%16%
+184%10%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.