Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

Corpus Christi

02
Lost

Cosmos

The model leans Corpus Christi at 43%. Expected goals: Corpus Christi 2.03, Cosmos 1.61. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%. Corpus Christi won 2 of their last 6; Cosmos won 1 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Corpus Christi47%2.14
XDraw23%4.33
2Cosmos30%3.32

Pick: Corpus Christi. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.03 – 1.61
LineOverUnder
1.588%12%
2.570%30%
3.549%51%
Both teams to scoreYes70%No30%

Most likely scores

  • 218.7%
  • 118.6%
  • 227.0%
  • 126.9%
  • 315.9%
  • 205.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Corpus Christi −0.5
Corpus Christi lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.527%73%
-127%20%52%
-0.548%52%
048%21%31%
+0.569%31%
+169%16%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.