Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

Boise

00
Lost

Corpus Christi

The model leans Boise at 64%. Expected goals: Boise 2.66, Corpus Christi 0.93. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 57%. Boise won 4 of their last 6; Corpus Christi won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Boise73%1.36
XDraw17%6.04
2Corpus Christi10%9.92

Pick: Boise. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 73%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.66 – 0.93
LineOverUnder
1.587%13%
2.570%30%
3.548%52%
Both teams to scoreYes56%No44%

Most likely scores

  • 209.8%
  • 219.1%
  • 308.7%
  • 318.1%
  • 107.3%
  • 116.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Boise −1.5
Boise lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.553%47%
-153%21%26%
-0.574%26%
074%15%11%
+0.589%11%
+189%7%3%
+1.597%3%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.