Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage
Boise
2–1
Won
Portland Hearts of Pine
The model leans Boise at 44%. Expected goals: Boise 1.84, Portland Hearts of Pine 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match48
25
27
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Boise | 48% | 2.09 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.04 | – | – | – |
| 2Portland Hearts of Pine | 27% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: Boise. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.84 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.5%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–06.9%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Boise −0.5| Boise line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 22% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 16% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.