Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

Corpus Christi

32
Lost

Portland Hearts of Pine

The model leans Portland Hearts of Pine at 50%. Expected goals: Corpus Christi 1.10, Portland Hearts of Pine 1.71. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Corpus Christi23%4.28
XDraw26%3.82
2Portland Hearts of Pine50%1.98

Pick: Portland Hearts of Pine. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.10 – 1.71
LineOverUnder
1.577%23%
2.553%47%
3.531%69%
Both teams to scoreYes55%No45%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.3%
  • 0110.3%
  • 129.7%
  • 028.8%
  • 106.6%
  • 216.2%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Portland Hearts of Pine −0.5
Corpus Christi lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.59%91%
-19%15%76%
-0.524%76%
024%24%52%
+0.548%52%
+148%24%28%
+1.572%28%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.