Predictions · USL Cup Grp. 4 · outside model coverage

Union Omaha

42
Won

Fort Wayne

The model leans Union Omaha at 50%. Expected goals: Union Omaha 1.51, Fort Wayne 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 56%. Union Omaha won 2 of their last 5; Fort Wayne won 0 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Union Omaha53%1.90
XDraw28%3.51
2Fort Wayne19%5.31

Pick: Union Omaha. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.51 – 0.81
LineOverUnder
1.567%33%
2.541%59%
3.520%80%
Both teams to scoreYes43%No57%

Most likely scores

  • 1014.9%
  • 1112.0%
  • 2011.2%
  • 009.9%
  • 219.1%
  • 018.0%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Union Omaha −0.5
Union Omaha lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.528%72%
-128%26%46%
-0.554%46%
054%26%20%
+0.580%20%
+180%14%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.