Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

Forward Madison FC

11
Lost

Fort Wayne

The model leans Forward Madison FC at 29%. Expected goals: Forward Madison FC 1.13, Fort Wayne 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%. Forward Madison FC won 2 of their last 6; Fort Wayne won 0 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Forward Madison FC35%2.87
XDraw32%3.17
2Fort Wayne34%2.98

Pick: Forward Madison FC. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 68%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.13 – 1.10
LineOverUnder
1.565%35%
2.538%62%
3.519%81%
Both teams to scoreYes45%No55%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.4%
  • 1012.1%
  • 0111.9%
  • 0010.8%
  • 217.5%
  • 127.4%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Forward Madison FC 0
Forward Madison FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.515%85%
-115%21%64%
-0.536%64%
036%29%35%
+0.565%35%
+165%21%14%
+1.586%14%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.