AV Alta
Fort Wayne
The model leans AV Alta at 31%. Expected goals: AV Alta 1.10, Fort Wayne 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 56%. AV Alta won 2 of their last 6; Fort Wayne won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AV Alta | 36% | 2.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Fort Wayne | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: AV Alta. Calibrated probability 31% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.10 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.3%
- 0–112.3%
- 0–012.1%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AV Alta 0| AV Alta line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 20% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.