Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

AV Alta

30
Won

Fort Wayne

The model leans AV Alta at 31%. Expected goals: AV Alta 1.10, Fort Wayne 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 56%. AV Alta won 2 of their last 6; Fort Wayne won 0 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1AV Alta36%2.79
XDraw33%3.07
2Fort Wayne32%3.17

Pick: AV Alta. Calibrated probability 31% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 68%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.10 – 1.01
LineOverUnder
1.562%38%
2.535%65%
3.516%84%
Both teams to scoreYes42%No58%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.5%
  • 1013.3%
  • 0112.3%
  • 0012.1%
  • 217.4%
  • 207.3%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: AV Alta 0
AV Alta lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.515%85%
-115%22%63%
-0.537%63%
037%30%33%
+0.567%33%
+167%20%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.