Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

Forward Madison FC

51
Won

Boise

The model leans Forward Madison FC at 38%. Expected goals: Forward Madison FC 1.64, Boise 1.48. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. Forward Madison FC won 2 of their last 6; Boise won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Forward Madison FC40%2.47
XDraw26%3.87
2Boise34%2.96

Pick: Forward Madison FC. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.64 – 1.48
LineOverUnder
1.582%18%
2.560%40%
3.538%62%
Both teams to scoreYes62%No38%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.7%
  • 218.8%
  • 127.9%
  • 107.3%
  • 016.6%
  • 226.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Forward Madison FC 0
Forward Madison FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.521%79%
-121%20%59%
-0.541%59%
041%24%35%
+0.565%35%
+165%18%16%
+1.584%16%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.