IFK Värnamo
IK Brage
The model leans IK Brage at 40%. Expected goals: IFK Värnamo 2.12, IK Brage 2.32. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 80%. IFK Värnamo won 3 of their last 6; IK Brage won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1IFK Värnamo | 36% | 2.78 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.85 | – | – | – |
| 2IK Brage | 43% | 2.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: IK Brage. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.12 – 2.32| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 65% | 35% |
| Both teams to score | Yes79% | No21% |
Most likely scores
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.7%
- 2–16.1%
- 1–15.8%
- 2–35.5%
- 1–35.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: IFK Värnamo 0| IFK Värnamo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 16% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 19% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 18% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.