IK Brage
IFK Värnamo
The model leans IK Brage at 53%. Expected goals: IK Brage 2.83, IFK Värnamo 1.74. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 78%. IK Brage won 1 of their last 6; IFK Värnamo won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1IK Brage | 60% | 1.67 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.51 | – | – | – |
| 2IFK Värnamo | 22% | 4.59 | – | – | – |
Pick: IK Brage. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.83 – 1.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams to score | Yes78% | No22% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.2%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.3%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.1%
- 4–14.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 62%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: IK Brage −1| IK Brage line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 19% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 17% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 12% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.