Ljungskile
IFK Värnamo
The model leans Ljungskile at 55%. Expected goals: Ljungskile 2.61, IFK Värnamo 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 69%. Ljungskile won 1 of their last 6; IFK Värnamo won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ljungskile | 64% | 1.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.31 | – | – | – |
| 2IFK Värnamo | 18% | 5.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ljungskile. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.61 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 56% | 44% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–06.5%
- 2–25.9%
- 3–05.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ljungskile −1| Ljungskile line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 21% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 11% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.