IFK Värnamo
Östersunds FK
The model leans IFK Värnamo at 42%. Expected goals: IFK Värnamo 2.13, Östersunds FK 1.80. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%. IFK Värnamo won 3 of their last 6; Östersunds FK won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1IFK Värnamo | 45% | 2.21 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Östersunds FK | 33% | 3.06 | – | – | – |
Pick: IFK Värnamo. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.13 – 1.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes74% | No26% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.0%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.7%
- 3–25.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: IFK Värnamo −0.5| IFK Värnamo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 19% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 21% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 16% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.