Predictions · Superettan · outside model coverage

IFK Värnamo

11
Lost

Landskrona BoIS

The model leans IFK Värnamo at 38%. Expected goals: IFK Värnamo 1.73, Landskrona BoIS 1.56. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. IFK Värnamo won 3 of their last 6; Landskrona BoIS won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1IFK Värnamo41%2.43
XDraw25%4.00
2Landskrona BoIS34%2.95

Pick: IFK Värnamo. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.73 – 1.56
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.564%36%
3.542%58%
Both teams to scoreYes65%No35%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.1%
  • 218.7%
  • 127.8%
  • 226.8%
  • 106.5%
  • 015.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: IFK Värnamo 0
IFK Värnamo lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%20%58%
-0.542%58%
042%23%35%
+0.565%35%
+165%18%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.