Helsingborg
IFK Värnamo
The model leans Helsingborg at 51%. Expected goals: Helsingborg 2.69, IFK Värnamo 1.75. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 77%. Helsingborg won 0 of their last 6; IFK Värnamo won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Helsingborg | 57% | 1.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.26 | – | – | – |
| 2IFK Värnamo | 24% | 4.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: Helsingborg. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.69 – 1.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 65% | 35% |
| Both teams to score | Yes77% | No23% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.5%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.5%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.6%
- 1–24.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 62%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Helsingborg −1| Helsingborg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 19% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 18% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 13% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.