IFK Värnamo
Helsingborg
The model leans Helsingborg at 38%. Expected goals: IFK Värnamo 2.13, Helsingborg 2.21. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 79%. IFK Värnamo won 3 of their last 6; Helsingborg won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1IFK Värnamo | 38% | 2.63 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Helsingborg | 41% | 2.44 | – | – | – |
Pick: Helsingborg. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.13 – 2.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 63% | 37% |
| Both teams to score | Yes78% | No22% |
Most likely scores
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–16.2%
- 2–35.3%
- 3–25.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: IFK Värnamo 0| IFK Värnamo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 17% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 20% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 18% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.