Predictions · Superettan · outside model coverage

Östersunds FK

10
Won

GIF Sundsvall

The model leans Östersunds FK at 50%. Expected goals: Östersunds FK 1.86, GIF Sundsvall 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%. Östersunds FK won 3 of their last 6; GIF Sundsvall won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Östersunds FK54%1.84
XDraw25%4.04
2GIF Sundsvall21%4.78

Pick: Östersunds FK. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.86 – 1.09
LineOverUnder
1.579%21%
2.556%44%
3.534%66%
Both teams to scoreYes56%No44%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.6%
  • 219.9%
  • 109.8%
  • 209.1%
  • 316.1%
  • 125.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Östersunds FK −0.5
Östersunds FK lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.532%68%
-132%24%45%
-0.555%45%
055%23%22%
+0.578%22%
+178%14%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.