IFK Värnamo
Ljungskile
The model leans Ljungskile at 45%. Expected goals: IFK Värnamo 1.65, Ljungskile 2.14. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 72%. IFK Värnamo won 3 of their last 6; Ljungskile won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1IFK Värnamo | 29% | 3.41 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Ljungskile | 48% | 2.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ljungskile. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.65 – 2.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.5%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–36.1%
- 0–25.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ljungskile −0.5| IFK Värnamo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 16% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 21% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 20% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.