Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Atletico Tucuman
The model leans Atletico Tucuman at 40%. Expected goals: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0.66, Atletico Tucuman 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 67%. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of their last 5; Atletico Tucuman won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 22% | 4.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.83 | – | – | – |
| 2Atletico Tucuman | 43% | 2.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Atletico Tucuman. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.66 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 0–118.9%
- 0–017.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–26.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atletico Tucuman −0.5| Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 17% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 33% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.