Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Tigre
The model leans Tigre at 43%. Expected goals: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0.44, Tigre 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 77%. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of their last 5; Tigre won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 15% | 6.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Tigre | 46% | 2.16 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tigre. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.44 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 83% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 95% |
| Both teams to score | Yes22% | No78% |
Most likely scores
- 0–024.5%
- 0–123.7%
- 0–211.4%
- 1–010.8%
- 1–110.4%
- 1–25.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tigre −0.5| Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 13% | 84% |
| -0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| 0 | 16% | 36% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.