Independiente Rivadavia
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
The model leans Independiente Rivadavia at 67%. Expected goals: Independiente Rivadavia 1.98, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0.39. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 71%. Independiente Rivadavia won 2 of their last 3; Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Independiente Rivadavia | 75% | 1.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.11 | – | – | – |
| 2Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 6% | 17.92 | – | – | – |
Pick: Independiente Rivadavia. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 75%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.98 – 0.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes28% | No72% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.5%
- 2–018.3%
- 3–012.1%
- 0–09.4%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Independiente Rivadavia −1.5| Independiente Rivadavia line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| -1 | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| -0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| 0 | 76% | 18% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.