Argentinos Juniors
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
The model leans Argentinos Juniors at 61%. Expected goals: Argentinos Juniors 1.59, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0.30. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 79%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Argentinos Juniors | 70% | 1.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 6% | 17.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: Argentinos Juniors. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.59 – 0.30| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes20% | No80% |
Most likely scores
- 1–024.1%
- 2–019.2%
- 0–015.1%
- 3–010.2%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–15.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Argentinos Juniors −1| Argentinos Juniors line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| -1 | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| -0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| 0 | 70% | 23% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 6% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.