Predictions · Liga Profesional Clausura · outside model coverage
Lanus
1–1
Won
Argentinos Juniors
The model leans Draw at 35%. Expected goals: Lanus 0.87, Argentinos Juniors 0.83. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 66%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match33
37
31
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lanus | 33% | 3.06 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.72 | – | – | – |
| 2Argentinos Juniors | 31% | 3.27 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.87 – 0.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 0–018.4%
- 1–015.9%
- 0–115.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 2–06.9%
- 0–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lanus 0| Lanus line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 22% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 34% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 21% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.