Lanus
Instituto
The model leans Lanus at 45%. Expected goals: Lanus 1.20, Instituto 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 65%. Lanus won 2 of their last 5; Instituto won 4 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lanus | 48% | 2.08 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Instituto | 19% | 5.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lanus. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.20 – 0.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.9%
- 0–015.8%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–011.3%
- 0–110.3%
- 2–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lanus −0.5| Lanus line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 31% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 15% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.