Talleres
Lanus
The model leans Draw at 37%. Expected goals: Talleres 0.78, Lanus 0.68. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 72%. Talleres won 0 of their last 4; Lanus won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Talleres | 33% | 3.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 40% | 2.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Lanus | 27% | 3.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.78 – 0.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 82% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 94% |
| Both teams to score | Yes27% | No73% |
Most likely scores
- 0–023.3%
- 1–018.1%
- 0–115.9%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–07.0%
- 0–25.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Talleres 0| Talleres line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 23% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 37% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 20% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.