Gimnasia Mendoza
Talleres
The model leans Draw at 38%. Expected goals: Gimnasia Mendoza 0.65, Talleres 0.73. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 74%. Gimnasia Mendoza won 2 of their last 3; Talleres won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gimnasia Mendoza | 27% | 3.69 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 41% | 2.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Talleres | 32% | 3.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.65 – 0.73| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 84% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 95% |
| Both teams to score | Yes25% | No75% |
Most likely scores
- 0–025.1%
- 0–118.4%
- 1–016.3%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–26.7%
- 2–05.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gimnasia Mendoza 0| Gimnasia Mendoza line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 21% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 39% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 23% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.