Gimnasia Mendoza
Union
The model leans Union at 39%. Expected goals: Gimnasia Mendoza 0.85, Union 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 60%. Gimnasia Mendoza won 2 of their last 3; Union won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gimnasia Mendoza | 25% | 3.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.04 | – | – | – |
| 2Union | 42% | 2.40 | – | – | – |
Pick: Union. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.85 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.6%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–27.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Union −0.5| Gimnasia Mendoza line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 18% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 30% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.