Aldosivi
Union
The model leans Union at 37%. Expected goals: Aldosivi 0.75, Union 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 65%. Aldosivi won 0 of their last 5; Union won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aldosivi | 25% | 3.97 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
| 2Union | 39% | 2.55 | – | – | – |
Pick: Union. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.75 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.3%
- 0–017.2%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–26.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aldosivi 0| Aldosivi line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 19% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 33% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.