San Lorenzo
Union
The model leans San Lorenzo at 38%. Expected goals: San Lorenzo 1.13, Union 0.83. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 61%. San Lorenzo won 1 of their last 5; Union won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Lorenzo | 41% | 2.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 2.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Union | 25% | 3.94 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Lorenzo. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 0.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.9%
- 0–014.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.7%
- 2–09.0%
- 2–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Lorenzo −0.5| San Lorenzo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 25% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 31% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.