San Lorenzo
Huracan
The model leans San Lorenzo at 36%. Expected goals: San Lorenzo 0.92, Huracan 0.69. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 69%. San Lorenzo won 1 of their last 5; Huracan won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Lorenzo | 38% | 2.64 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.68 | – | – | – |
| 2Huracan | 25% | 4.03 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Lorenzo. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.92 – 0.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 78% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes30% | No70% |
Most likely scores
- 0–019.9%
- 1–018.4%
- 0–113.8%
- 1–112.7%
- 2–08.5%
- 2–15.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 68% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Lorenzo 0| San Lorenzo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 25% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 35% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 19% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.