Huracan
Deportivo Riestra
The model leans Huracan at 41%. Expected goals: Huracan 0.85, Deportivo Riestra 0.37. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 81%. Huracan won 2 of their last 6; Deportivo Riestra won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Huracan | 44% | 2.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 41% | 2.42 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportivo Riestra | 14% | 7.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: Huracan. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.85 – 0.37| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 87% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 96% |
| Both teams to score | Yes18% | No82% |
Most likely scores
- 0–029.5%
- 1–025.2%
- 0–110.9%
- 2–010.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–13.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 71% · BTTS No 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Huracan −0.5| Huracan line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 29% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 13% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.