Deportivo Riestra
Barracas Central
The model leans Draw at 41%. Expected goals: Deportivo Riestra 0.60, Barracas Central 0.60. Over 2.5 goals 88%, both teams to score 79%. Deportivo Riestra won 1 of their last 4; Barracas Central won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportivo Riestra | 28% | 3.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 44% | 2.27 | – | – | – |
| 2Barracas Central | 28% | 3.58 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.60 – 0.60| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 88% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 97% |
| Both teams to score | Yes20% | No80% |
Most likely scores
- 0–030.1%
- 1–018.1%
- 0–118.1%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–05.4%
- 0–25.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 71% · BTTS No 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportivo Riestra 0| Deportivo Riestra line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 22% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 42% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 22% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.