Barracas Central
Club Atletico Platense
The model leans Barracas Central at 50%. Expected goals: Barracas Central 1.26, Club Atletico Platense 0.48. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 72%. Barracas Central won 3 of their last 5; Club Atletico Platense won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barracas Central | 55% | 1.82 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.12 | – | – | – |
| 2Club Atletico Platense | 13% | 7.66 | – | – | – |
Pick: Barracas Central. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.26 – 0.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes27% | No73% |
Most likely scores
- 1–022.2%
- 0–017.7%
- 2–013.9%
- 1–110.6%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barracas Central −0.5| Barracas Central line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 30% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 30% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 11% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.