Club Atletico Platense
Boca Juniors
The model leans Boca Juniors at 51%. Expected goals: Club Atletico Platense 0.46, Boca Juniors 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%. Club Atletico Platense won 2 of their last 6; Boca Juniors won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Club Atletico Platense | 12% | 8.19 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
| 2Boca Juniors | 56% | 1.77 | – | – | – |
Pick: Boca Juniors. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.46 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes27% | No73% |
Most likely scores
- 0–122.4%
- 0–017.4%
- 0–214.4%
- 1–110.3%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–26.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Boca Juniors −0.5| Club Atletico Platense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 11% | 87% |
| -0.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| 0 | 13% | 29% | 57% |
| +0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| +1 | 43% | 30% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.