Club Atlético Platense
Instituto
The model leans Draw at 37%. Expected goals: Club Atlético Platense 0.69, Instituto 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 71%. Club Atlético Platense won 2 of their last 6; Instituto won 4 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Club Atlético Platense | 27% | 3.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 39% | 2.54 | – | – | – |
| 2Instituto | 34% | 2.96 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.69 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 81% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 94% |
| Both teams to score | Yes27% | No73% |
Most likely scores
- 0–022.6%
- 0–118.1%
- 1–015.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–05.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Club Atlético Platense 0| Club Atlético Platense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 20% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 37% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 24% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.