Instituto
Gimnasia Mendoza
The model leans Instituto at 50%. Expected goals: Instituto 1.22, Gimnasia Mendoza 0.58. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 68%. Instituto won 4 of their last 5; Gimnasia Mendoza won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Instituto | 51% | 1.96 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Gimnasia Mendoza | 16% | 6.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Instituto. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 0.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 1–020.2%
- 0–016.6%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Instituto −0.5| Instituto line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 28% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 30% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 13% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.